As far as the island not being able to protect Michael, or anyone else for that matter, I think it's been shown that it can definitely happen. Desmond and Locke should not have survived the blast inside the hatch at the end of season 2, but they did. By chance? I don't think so. Also, if the island wants you to die, you're going to die. If the island wants you to live, you're going to live. I think Charlie and Michael are good examples.