I'm in the camp that says Smokey is a different entity from the apparitions, but I do believe they are controlled by the same source: Jacob/The Island.

As for Claire wondering off into the jungle with Christian: I think this is the island making an insurance policy for those that want to get off the island. It's somewhat presumptuous, but I think Jack will eventually find out he is Aaron's uncle in the next couple of episodes. He therefore will think it's his obligation to get Aaron off the island (how Kate comes to take of it is beyond my reach now). After a while, the island will summon him back to the island in order to give the baby back to Claire (who I think is not dead). Perhaps, this episode was Christian's first attempt to get in contact with Jack to tell him this.

What is really presumptuous right now is that Jack's receptionist, Jane, could be one of two things: a spy for Widmore's group; or even cooler: a time guardian like Mrs. Hawking! That would be pretty sweet.

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Abaddon