Kudos on a sum-up well done, Can o' worms! And therein lies my confusion. I think they both are capable of it.
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I thought the real flight 815 that broke up over the island was caused by Desmond's faliure to push the button in time. - Folie
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I see what you are saying. I've read a lot of stuff on this. This seems to be the BIG question in the FATE vs. CHANCE or free will argument. Did the plane simply crash because at the exact moment that Desmond didn't push the button the plane was in the exact right spot, or did Fate (or the island) course-correct because Ben needed a spinal surgeon because Ben needs to protect the island.
And btw - didn't the map that Ben gave to Alex, Karl, and Danielle look a WHOLE lot like the style of map that Daniel and Charlotte used to find the Tempest. So more confusion in that Mr. Widmore and Mr. Linus get their maps from the same place?