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I'm not sure I agree that Claire dies. I think she is one of the reasons that they have to go back. They need to stop the lie that they were forced to tell for whatever reasons and go get the others. This may include Claire.

I think somehow a deal was made that Kate would take Aaron off the island and raise the boy as her own since Claire was left behind.

Why doesn't jack want to see aaron? Because aaron is the truth in a lie Jack is living. The only way for Jack to live this lie is to believe it to be the truth. Remember how Kate says, "I've heard you tell that story so many times. I'm starting to think you believe it." Jack doesn't even respond - because he knows this is true. Jack is fighting against all his principles to live this lie for whatever reason. and living the lie ends up destroying him (season 3 finale FF).

Anyway...Claire may or may not die. I just don't think it's that obvious that she ends up dead. My question is, did Desmond lie to Charlie? Did he really see Claire get on a helicopter or was he using Charlie? He needed Charlie to sacrifice himself, but we never saw the actual flash that desmond saw.