I personally think the guy would've been WAY more panicked if he knew Sayid was going to kill him, he would've at least missed his shot and lost the bet. He looked a little confused, a little scared, wary...like he was trying to absorb the info and make sense of it. 'here I am, golfing in the Seychelles, I'm involved in covering up the crash (or whatever he's guilty of) and here is one of the oceanic six...this can't be good' But if he knew Sayid was killing them... as soon as he said 'I am Sayid Jarrah' the guy would have KNOWN for certain he was about to take a bullet. The 31 minute thing is interesting but based on the guy's reaction I think it happened before the Berlin incident. He says to Ben 'Now they will know..." Mr. Aveleno (I thought he called him Mr. Avion) did not know yet.