I don't know Pip, this all seems very valid.. and it if you can't see the implications for the long run and how Libby is still important, then you are missing the point of Hurley altogether. What are the odds of a guy and girl in a mental institution at one time and on a plane from Austraillia to LA at the same time? What is Dave trying to eventually lead Hurley in doing both times we see Dave... get him out. What is Charlie trying to do now with Hurley..get him back in. Hurley is a wild card. Ben guessed Locke would see the cabin, maybe Jacob... but never had an inkling Hurley would see either.
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