A setup is certainly implied, but as with all things Lost it could be coincidence, or fate at work. There is further evidence to support this at the Oceanic Airlines website, where if you look at seating arrangements and at the flight sequences, certain rows (4, 8,15,16,23, and 42 to be more to the point) contained the people who survived the crash.

That, however, could also be entirely coincidental, or contrived just to make us think there is more to it.

As for Kate seeing more than she's saying - quite possible. Remember the main characters have seen Smokey a few times but he remains a low topic of discussion among the rest of the Fusies. I would be out there every day trying to spot the thing and find out what it was doing and how...

If we apply all your comments to what was learned in the Lost Experience, this could be the equation working to balance itself and create a new set of variables. Introduce the numbers to the Island, let the Island change the numbers until everything works correctly, and in some weird way save the world.

If I keep obsessing over the Numbers, I'm going to end up like Leonard!

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“Because, in a land of predators, the lion never fears the Jackal.” – Dexter S3E03 “The Lion Sleeps Tonight”