And like I said in chatting I think Smokey's shapeshifting ablity changes EVERYTHING. Now we don't know if people are the real deal or being deceived by Smokey. Did Kate really see a black horse in the jungle or was it the smoke monster spying on her? Was Dave the smoke monster? Ana-Lucia appearing to Eko after she was shot? And where did Cindy go, didn't she just vanish into the jungle right before Shannon was shot? Was Joanna the smoke monster trying to lure someone out into the water to drown - didn't Boone almost drown (if Jack hadn't saved him?)